The roster of near-Earth objects that could potentially threaten our planet is limited, and asteroid Apophis once topped that list. Recent observations, however, have cleared it of any danger for the next century.
Since its discovery in 2004, astronomers have closely tracked Apophis, a near-Earth asteroid. Early orbital data indicated a close approach in 2029, with later scans suggesting a possible impact in 2068. Measuring about 340 meters across, an unlikely collision could unleash energy equivalent to 1,151 megatons of TNT.
New data has eliminated these concerns. On March 5, as Apophis passed within 0.11 astronomical units of Earth, a team of astronomers refined its trajectory using NASA's Deep Space Network antennas in California and the Green Bank Telescope in West Virginia—the Arecibo Observatory radar having been offline for over a year.
The updated analysis confirms no impact risk in 2029, 2068, or anytime in the next 100 years. Apophis has been removed from NASA's Sentry Impact Risk Table.
"When I started working with asteroids after college, Apophis was the poster child for hazardous objects," says Davide Farnocchia, NASA's asteroid orbit analyst. "It's satisfying to see it off the risk list, and we're excited for the scientific insights from its 2029 flyby."
In 2029, Apophis will pass just 32,000 kilometers from Earth's surface—a prime opportunity to study its Yarkovsky effect. As the asteroid orbits the Sun, sunlight unevenly heats its rotating surface, causing slight temperature variations that nudge its path over time. These subtle drifts must be factored into long-term predictions.
For context, the top near-Earth threats remain 29075 (1950 DA), with a 1-in-8,300 (0.012%) chance of impact in 2880, and Bennu, at 1-in-2,700 (0.037%) odds between 2175 and 2199.
