Instead of waiting for the Long March 9 super-heavy launcher in the early 2030s, China could adapt two proven Long March 5 rockets to enable crewed lunar missions much sooner—potentially this decade.
Earlier this year, leaders from China's and Russia's space agencies signed a pact to build a lunar research station. This outpost will support multidisciplinary experiments for lunar exploration and utilization, including infrastructure for sustained human presence.
The initiative unfolds in phases. Initially, probes like China's Chang'e-6 and Chang'e-7, plus Russia's Luna 25, 26, and 27 missions (set for 2024-2025), will scout prime sites near the lunar south pole for the base.
In the next phase (2026-2030), Chang'e-8 and Luna 28 will deploy to the selected site, using robotic systems to construct facilities. Originally, China planned crewed landings from the early 2030s via the developing Long March 9.
However, experts suggest an accelerated path using existing hardware.
Long Lehao, chief designer of the Long March family, proposes enhancing two Long March 5 rockets for superior performance—currently akin to the ULA Delta IV Heavy.
In this setup, one upgraded rocket (potentially Long March 5-DY) would loft a lunar lander into orbit, while the second delivers the crew for rendezvous. Astronauts would transfer to the lander, spend about six hours on the surface, then return to Earth.
Space journalist Eric Berger of Ars Technica notes this approach could hasten China's lunar debut. Long Lehao's endorsement elevates it from speculation to viable option. Andrew Jones, a leading tracker of China's program, anticipates details at the Zhuhai Air Show in late September or early October.
Should this proceed, it intensifies the U.S.-led vs. China-Russia "space race." Time will tell if collaboration emerges.
