Earlier this week, Russia's anti-satellite test forced seven ISS astronauts to shelter in their spacecraft to evade debris from the collision. Experts predict this will more than double satellite avoidance maneuvers in the coming years.
On November 15, Russia launched an anti-satellite missile at the retired Soviet Kosmos 1408 surveillance satellite, orbiting at 650 km altitude and weighing two tons. The test generated a cloud of approximately 1,500 trackable debris fragments, prompting the International Space Station (ISS) crew to take shelter as a precaution.
While ISS operations returned to normal by Monday afternoon, experts warn that this debris will endanger low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites and future space station crews for years. Hugh Lewis, director of the Astronautics Research Group at the University of Southampton, estimates half of the trackable fragments may reenter and burn up within two years, with the remainder lingering for over a decade.
"Once cataloged, I expect many close approaches with satellites and other LEO objects, posing risks to space security," Lewis stated.
Preliminary analysis indicates the debris will increase avoidance maneuvers by more than 100% in the next few years, according to Tim Flohrer, head of ESA's Space Debris Office, in comments to Space.com.
Beyond the 1,500 trackable pieces, the U.S. Space Command reports hundreds of thousands of smaller, undetectable fragments, which could lead to unforeseen hazards. SpaceX's Starlink constellation, with nearly 1,850 satellites in the region, is also at risk.
The U.S. swiftly condemned the test, warning of long-term threats to LEO security. "Russia demonstrated reckless disregard for the safety, stability, and sustainability of space for all nations," stated U.S. Space Command Commander Gen. James Dickinson.
Russia's Defense Ministry confirmed the test but insisted the debris posed no risk to the ISS, prioritizing crew safety.
This isn't the first such test: India conducted one in 2019 at 282 km altitude, with most debris burning up quickly. China's 2007 test at 865 km, however, continues to generate collision risks, underscoring why Russia's higher-altitude strike raises greater concerns.
