NASA aims to return humans to the Moon by 2024 through its Artemis program, but experts view this deadline as overly ambitious. With President-elect Joe Biden taking office, the timeline may extend by a year or two, allowing more realistic progress.
In 2017, the Trump administration directed NASA to achieve a crewed Moon landing by 2024, launching the Artemis program in three phases. Artemis 1 will be an uncrewed lunar orbit mission. Artemis 2 will send astronauts around the Moon, followed by Artemis 3, which will land the first woman and next man on the surface.
Ultimately, Artemis seeks to establish permanent installations at the lunar South Pole for extended crew stays. It will also pioneer new technologies and systems for simpler, more affordable deep-space exploration, paving the way for Mars.
From the outset, the 2024 target was seen as aggressive, often tied to potential Trump re-election. Now, with Joe Biden set to lead from January, priorities may shift.
Artemis remains on track, with no cancellation signals from Biden. He hasn't detailed NASA plans publicly, but the Democratic Party's 2020 platform affirms: "We support NASA's work to get Americans back to the Moon and beyond, taking the next step in exploring our solar system."
Experts anticipate a more flexible schedule. "I expect the 2024 target to disappear," says John Logsdon, professor emeritus at George Washington University's Elliott School. Eric Stallmer of Voyager Space Holdings concurs: "I think people will reassess the schedule for sure. And, frankly, I don't think anyone thought the 2024 timeline was ever realistic."
NASA's human spaceflight head, Kathy Lueders, echoed this in June: "I don't have a crystal ball," she told reporters. "But we will try. I think it is very important to have an aggressive goal. This allows the team to focus on the importance of the mission."
Any Artemis adjustments won't be isolated. Democrats emphasize combating climate change, with Biden pledging re-entry into the Paris Agreement after Trump's exit.
As the second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, the U.S. could lead global efforts. Expect boosted NASA and NOAA Earth observation missions to track warming and its impacts.
