Seven years ago, SpaceX marked its first interplanetary success by launching the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) over a million kilometers from Earth. The Falcon 9 second stage from that mission is now on a path to intersect the Moon's orbit, with expert Bill Gray forecasting a potential impact next March.
After multiple delays, DSCOVR launched on February 11, 2015, aboard a Falcon 9 from Florida, heading to the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point, more than 1.5 million kilometers distant. It reached its orbit on June 8, over 120 days post-launch.
Unlike typical interplanetary missions that send upper stages into heliocentric orbits, this Falcon 9 second stage lacked fuel to reenter Earth's atmosphere or escape the Earth-Moon system after its burn. For seven years, it has followed a chaotic path within the system, but its journey nears its end.
Orbital dynamics expert Bill Gray reports the stage's orbit will soon cross the Moon's. Impact is projected for March 4, likely on the far side near the equator. Weighing about four metric tons dry, it could hit at roughly 2.58 km/s.
Uncertainties persist due to subtle solar radiation effects accumulating over time, necessitating further observations to pinpoint the exact location and timing.
These details matter for lunar-orbiting satellites like NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), which can capture impact data. This echoes NASA's 2009 LCROSS mission, where an Atlas V Centaur stage was intentionally crashed to aid LRO's lunar orbit insertion.
